Monday, 6 March 2017

Cricket teams and the efficient frontier - Part 2

A while back I posted a largely ridiculous idea to create a financial market around cricket one-day international scores. In summary, the "stock" was a team's average score in ODIs throughout the year (with some assumptions, see the post). It was based around the idea that ODI scores have been increasing year-on-year since ODIs were invented. Using traditional financial market modelling techniques, we came up with an investment strategy for each of the teams, which involved mainly investing in South Africa and Bangladesh.

So, how did we go?

Unsurprisingly, not that well! Under the assumptions of the model, the average ODI score increased slightly from 266.8 to 267.5. So, if you had invested in the ODIAll index fund, you would have made a slight profit. If however you had chosen the market portfolio, you would have lost 14.4% of your money, largely on the back of diminished South African and Bangladeshi performances. Similarly, if you had not allowed short selling, you would have lost 9.8% of your money. And even the least risky minimum risk portfolio lost 4.8%.

Much like the real stock market, you best bet would have been to simply invest in the Index. Here is the updated risk/return chart.

If you are playing again in 2017, your strategy is similar to last year - perhaps reflecting that this method of measuring "stock performance" is not particularly good! Using a team's entire history to predict next year's scores is not the way I'd do it - you're better off looking at its recent history, who and where it is playing this year etc. I'd probably be investing in England in 2017. They seem to be finally learning how to play ODIs, although they had a very good 2016 so it would take an even better year to improve on that. And the Associates are getting better and better, with 3 set to join the 10 Test playing nations in a proper regular ODI league - they will be jostling for those positions so I expect performances to improve.

Market Portfolio No short selling Minimum Risk Portfolio
Australia -0.08 0.00 0.29
England 0.00 0.00 0.03
New Zealand 0.16 0.08 0.00
India 0.05 0.00 0.10
Pakistan 0.18 0.00 0.11
West Indies -0.20 0.00 0.06
South Africa 0.40 0.23 0.20
Sri Lanka -0.06 0.00 0.08
Zimbabwe 0.03 0.07 0.06
Bangladesh 0.44 0.58 0.07
Associate 0.08 0.05 0.00


42 comments:

  1. i wish to have some diamond necklace but they are quite expensive” บาคาร่า

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hello viewers around the Globe, I was despondent because i had a very small penis, about 2.5 inches soft and 4 inches hard not nice enough to satisfy a woman, i have been in so many relationship, but cut off because of my situation, i have used so many product which doctors for me, but none could offer me the help i searched for. i saw some few comments on the INTERNET about this specialist called Dr,OLU and decided to contact him on his email: Drolusolutinthome@gmail.com) so I decided to give his herbal product a try. i emailed him and he got back to me, he gave me some comforting words with his herbal pills for Penis Enlargement, Within 3 week of it, i began to feel the enlargement was surprised when she said that she is satisfied with my sex and i have got a large penis. Am so happy, thanks to Dr OLU I also learn that Dr OLU also help with Breast Enlargement Hips and Bums Enlargement etc.. If you are in any situation with a little Penis, weak ejaculation, small breast_hips_bums do get to Dr OLU now for help on his email (Drolusolutionhome@gmail.com) or add him on whatsapp line +2348140654426 

      Delete
  2. This is my first time visit here. From the tons of comments on your articles,I guess I am not only one having all the enjoyment right here! go

    ReplyDelete
  3. Defending champions CSK IPl Squad have retained the vast majority of the squad which had won the title in 2018. Captain MS Dhoni will be eager to come out all guns blazing and head into the World Cup on the back of a solid IPL season. The well-oiled unit have adequate depth in all departments of the game.

    ReplyDelete
  4. A round of applause for your article.Much thanks again. Cool. bangladesh cricket

    ReplyDelete
  5. Muchos Gracias for your blog post.Really thank you! Great. bangladesh cricket

    ReplyDelete
  6. bachelor developer software company
    hello brother's your bachelor developer software company provide high qualty software provider ricently create a school menegment system provide a very low bujet for school's with a androide application.

    SEO
    hello brother's your software company provide a high quality seo websites ranking on page and off page.

    graphic design
    hello brother's our software company provide graphic designing service by bachelor developer.

    software company in hyderabad
    software company in pakistan

    hello brother's your bachelor developer software company provide high qualty software provider ricently create a school menegment system provide a very low bujet for school's with a androide application.
    Web design company

    bachelor developer software company provide high quality software and websites and more services.
    cheap website design pakistan

    software house in pakistan

    software house in sindh

    web development company pakistan

    software house in latifabad

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thanks for sharing these cricket highlights,keep it up. If looking to play fantasy cricket online Download Fantasy Cricket App and play your game at your favorite destination and get instant cash bonus of ₹150 on every step of sign up including mobile number, email and PAN card verification. Signup & create your team of Best 11 to win huge cash.

    ReplyDelete
  8. And if you pay close attention those copies are pirated. It is more clear in case of newly released movies. You will find that the copy they are displaying is taped by a camera in a movie theatre! PinkFour

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks for this excellent. I was wondering whether you were planning of writing similar posts to this one. .Keep up the excellent articles! All Teams Squads eT20s

    ReplyDelete
  10. Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed! Extremely helpful information specially the last part I care for such info a lot. I was seeking this particular information for a very long time. Thank you and good luck. Cricket news

    ReplyDelete
  11. The Twenty20 cricket has been greatly successful. The tournaments attract the attention of cricket lovers from across the globe.Click to find out

    ReplyDelete
  12. In our modern age of sports, where sports science is at a stratospheric level and rising, what are the factors that when applied correctly can lead sports participants to peak performance in sports? 안전놀이터

    ReplyDelete
  13. Fine way of telling, and pleasant post.
    Useful post, Nice info!
    Thanks a lot for sharing it, that’s truly has added a lot to our knowledge about this topic. Have a more success ful day. Amazing write-up, always find something interesting.
    Thanks
    CPL T20 2019 Match Reports
    Today Match Prediction
    Match Prediction Tips
    Who will win
    BBL 2019-20 Ball to Ball Match Prediction
    IPL 2020 Cricket Betting Tips

    ReplyDelete
  14. Love to read it,Waiting For More new Update and I Already Read your Recent Post its Great Thanks. Shakib Al Hasan

    ReplyDelete
  15. Many thanks for share your blog site here. Cricket score app

    ReplyDelete
  16. Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon. Big thanks for the useful info. ICC Rankings

    ReplyDelete
  17. I think this is an informative post and it is very useful and knowledgeable. therefore, I would like to thank you for the efforts you have made in writing this article. seo consultant

    ReplyDelete
  18. The most reliable places to bet on the Toto site are called "Safety Playground" and "Safety Park." We share all Toto sites in real-time verification thoroughly after the introduction and guidance for the user Never to play as a verification site for Toto Sites 토토사이트

    ReplyDelete
  19. I located one effective example of this fact through this blog site. I am going to utilize such information now. Online Cricket Scoring System

    ReplyDelete
  20. Nevertheless, many graph sites do things that offend these users. Well, there are a lot of graph sites that don't give prizes on purpose. We recommend the most complete graph site. 그래프게임

    ReplyDelete
  21. The fairways are smaller than the front nine however they will in general be shorter and you have extricated up, so despite the fact that you must be somewhat more exact than on the front nine the golf is as yet agreeable. Presidents Cup 2019 Live Stream

    ReplyDelete
  22. Share wonderful details concerning your blog site, Blog truly useful for us. Online cricket score

    ReplyDelete
  23. The web site is lovingly serviced and saved as much as date. So it should be, thanks for sharing this with us. https://realcricketmodapk.com/hack

    ReplyDelete
  24. Really, this article is truly one of the best in the history of the article. I am an antique

    'Article' collector and sometimes I read some new articles if I find it interesting. And I

    found this quite interesting and had to go into my collection.
    Very good job!
    ao lop phan quang
    đồng phục việt nam
    http://anhngubingo.com/khoa-hoc
    cái chết của Lê Hải An

    ReplyDelete
  25. Online sport betting is estimated to be 5 times bigger than Las Vegas sports betting. Sports Betting is pretty simple, all you have to do is learn the ropes.안전놀이터

    ReplyDelete
  26. Really good information when i read your blog i really feel happy to read this post.
    christmas songs
    80s hit songs

    ReplyDelete