Are NSW players over-represented in the Australian cricket team?

In every sports competition in the world, fans of one team will claim another team gets more favourable treatment than their own, whether it’s selection in representative teams, concessions regarding player salaries or favourable refereeing decisions. Cricket in Australia is no different. The dawn of summer is almost inevitably accompanied by bleating, generally from Victorian fans, about how players from New South Wales are more likely to be selected in the national team than players from other states. This opinion found a voice in David Hookes, who claimed:

"When they give out the baggy blue cap in New South Wales, they give you a baggy green one in a brown paper bag as well to save making two presentations."

It’s about time we put this idea to the test. Since the 1977/78 season, all 6 Australian states have played in the Sheffield Shield, Australia’s domestic first-class cricket competition. Since 1982/83, the season has culminated in a grand final (previous to this the winner was determined league style by whoever won the most throughout the season). I will use data from 1982/83 till now for consistency and so that all states are represented. The following table shows the players who have debuted for Australia since the start of the 1982/83 season, the state they were playing for at the time of their debut, and the number of Tests they played throughout their career.

Player	Years	Tests	State		Player	Years	Tests	State
Carl Rackemann	1982–91	12	Qld		Matthew Elliott	1996–2004	21	Vic
Kepler Wessels	1982–85	24	Qld		Michael Kasprowicz	1996–2006	38	Qld
Tom Hogan	1983–84	7	WA		Jason Gillespie	1996–2006	71	SA
Roger Woolley	1983–84	2	Tas		Andy Bichel	1997–2003	19	Qld
Wayne B. Phillips	1983–86	27	SA		Shaun Young	1997	1	Tas
John Maguire	1983–84	3	Qld		Simon Cook	1997	2	NSW
Greg Matthews	1983–93	33	NSW		Stuart MacGill	1998–2008	44	NSW
Steve Smith	1984	3	NSW		Gavin Robertson	1998	4	NSW
Dean Jones	1984–92	52	Vic		Paul Wilson	1998	1	SA
David Boon	1984–96	107	Tas		Adam Dale	1998–99	2	Qld
Bob Holland	1984–86	11	NSW		Darren Lehmann	1998–2004	27	SA
Murray Bennett	1984–85	3	NSW		Colin Miller	1998–2001	18	Tas
Craig McDermott	1984–96	71	Qld		Matthew Nicholson	1998	1	WA
Simon O'Donnell	1985	6	Vic		Adam Gilchrist	1999–2008	96	WA
Dave Gilbert	1985–86	9	NSW		Scott Muller	1999	2	Qld
Robbie Kerr	1985	2	Qld		Brett Lee	1999–2010	76	NSW
Merv Hughes	1985–94	53	Vic		Simon Katich	2001–	56	WA
Geoff Marsh	1985–92	50	WA		Martin Love	2002–03	5	Qld
Bruce Reid	1985–92	27	WA		Brad Williams	2003–04	4	WA
Steve Waugh	1985–2004	168	NSW		Nathan Bracken	2003–05	5	NSW
Simon Davis	1986	1	Vic		Andrew Symonds	2004–09	26	Qld
Tim Zoehrer	1986–87	10	WA		Michael Clarke	2004–	67	NSW
Chris Matthews	1986–88	3	WA		Nathan Hauritz	2004–	17	Qld
Greg Dyer	1986–88	6	NSW		Shane Watson	2005–	25	Qld
Peter Taylor	1987–91	13	NSW		Shaun Tait	2005–08	3	SA
Mike Veletta	1987–90	8	WA		Michael Hussey	2005–	57	WA
Tim May	1987–95	24	SA		Brad Hodge	2005-08	6	Vic
Tony Dodemaide	1987–92	10	Vic		Phil Jaques	2005–08	11	NSW
Ian Healy	1988–99	119	Qld		Stuart Clark	2006–09	24	NSW
Trevor Hohns	1989	7	Qld		Dan Cullen	2006	1	SA
Mark Taylor	1989–99	104	NSW		Mitchell Johnson	2007–	40	Qld
Greg Campbell	1989–90	4	Tas		Chris Rogers	2008	1	WA
Tom Moody	1989–92	8	WA		Brad Haddin	2008–	30	NSW
Mark Waugh	1991–2002	128	NSW		Beau Casson	2008	1	NSW
Shane Warne	1992–2007	145	Vic		Cameron White	2008–09	4	Vic
Wayne N. Phillips	1992	1	Vic		Peter Siddle	2008–	20	Vic
Paul Reiffel	1992–98	35	Vic		Jason Krejza	2008	2	Tas
Damien Martyn	1992–2006	67	WA		Doug Bollinger	2009–	12	NSW
Justin Langer	1993–2007	105	WA		Andrew McDonald	2009	4	Vic
Jo Angel	1993–95	4	WA		Ben Hilfenhaus	2009–	15	Tas
Michael Slater	1993–2001	74	NSW		Phillip Hughes	2009–	8	NSW
Brendon Julian	1993–95	7	WA		Marcus North	2009–	21	WA
Glenn McGrath	1993–2007	124	NSW		Bryce McGain	2009	1	Vic
Matthew Hayden	1994–2009	103	Qld		Graham Manou	2009	1	SA
Michael Bevan	1994–98	18	NSW		Clint McKay	2009	1	Vic
Damien Fleming	1994–2001	20	Vic		Ryan Harris	2010–	4	SA
Phil Emery	1994	1	NSW		Tim Paine	2010	4	Tas
Greg Blewett	1995–2000	46	SA		Steven Smith	2010–	3	NSW
Peter McIntyre	1995–96	2	SA		Peter George	2010–	1	SA
Stuart Law	1995	1	Qld		Xavier Doherty	2010	2	Tas
Ricky Ponting	1995–	151	Tas		Michael Beer	2011–	1	WA
Brad Hogg	1996–2008	7	WA		Usman Khawaja	2011–	1	NSW

Of the 104 players who debuted after 1982/83, 28 were playing for NSW when they were first picked for Australia (27% of the new players).

	Players	Percentage
NSW	28	27%
WA	20	19%
Qld	18	17%
Vic	16	15%
Tas	10	10%
SA	12	12%

Clearly NSW players have played more Tests. But is this unreasonable? There are two measures we can look at here. Sheffield Shield results and state populations. The following shows the results of the Shield since 1982/83.

Season	Winner	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth		Season	Winner	Second	Third	Fourth	Fifth	Sixth
1982–83	NSW	WA	SA	Tas	Qld	Vic		1997–98	WA	Tas	Qld	NSW	Vic	SA
1983–84	WA	Qld	Tas	NSW	SA	Vic		1998–99	WA	Qld	Vic	SA	Tas	NSW
1984–85	NSW	Qld	SA	WA	Vic	Tas		1999-00	Qld	Vic	WA	SA	Tas	NSW
1985–86	NSW	Qld	Vic	WA	SA	Tas		2000–01	Qld	Vic	NSW	Tas	WA	SA
1986–87	WA	Vic	Qld	SA	NSW	Tas		2001–02	Qld	Tas	WA	SA	Vic	NSW
1987–88	WA	Qld	NSW	Vic	SA	Tas		2002–03	NSW	Qld	Vic	SA	WA	Tas
1988–89	WA	SA	Qld	NSW	Tas	Vic		2003–04	Vic	Qld	Tas	WA	NSW	SA
1989–90	NSW	Qld	SA	Tas	WA	Vic		2004–05	NSW	Qld	WA	Vic	SA	Tas
1990–91	Vic	NSW	Qld	WA	SA	Tas		2005–06	Qld	Vic	SA	Tas	WA	NSW
1991–92	WA	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA	Tas		2006–07	Tas	NSW	Vic	Qld	WA	SA
1992–93	NSW	Qld	WA	SA	Tas	Vic		2007–08	NSW	Vic	WA	Tas	SA	Qld
1993–94	NSW	Tas	WA	Vic	SA	Qld		2008–09	Vic	Qld	SA	Tas	WA	NSW
1994–95	Qld	SA	Vic	WA	NSW	Tas		2009–10	Vic	Qld	NSW	WA	Tas	SA
1995–96	SA	WA	Qld	Tas	NSW	Vic		2001–11	Tas	NSW	Qld	WA	Vic	SA
1996–97	Qld	WA	NSW	Tas	Vic	SA

NSW has won 9 Shields, ahead of WA’s 7. If you look at the percentage of Shield wins per state and compare this to the number of players picked for Australia from that state, you will notice that these results are remarkably similar. Is it any surprise that the most successful team over this time has more players picked for representative honours? If you look at all the Tests played since 82/83, 34% of the Test positions up for grabs were occupied by NSW players, and the order of states is exactly the same as the order for number of Shield wins. This is strong evidence that rather than a selection bias, players are being picked either because they are the best players or because they have been a part of successful teams.

	Players			Tests			Shield wins
NSW	28	27%		983	34%		9	31%
WA	20	19%		540	18%		7	24%
Qld	18	17%		516	18%		6	21%
Vic	16	15%		380	13%		4	14%
Tas	10	10%		306	10%		2	7%
SA	12	12%		208	7%		1	3%

The second way to look at this is by state population. I don’t particularly like this method because sportsmen, especially in this professional age, move teams for many reasons, including for better opportunities and more pay, and don’t necessarily play for the state of their birth. The most populous state is not necessarily going to have the best team. But because this is often the first measure people look to when analysing team results (for example, Olympic results), and because arguably a larger population means a bigger economy and therefore more money flowing through the team, we shall include some analysis. Since 1982, NSW (+ACT) has averaged 36% of the total population of the states (excluding Northern Territory). Again, this matches quite closely the number of players picked for Australia – indeed, you might argue that more players from NSW should have been picked. It would be by this measure that Victorians may claim some bias.

	Population	Shield Wins
NSW + ACT	36%	31%
Vic	25%	14%
Qld	18%	21%
WA	10%	24%
Tas	3%	7%
SA	8%	3%

Finally, let’s look at the one-test wonders – the players who only played one test.

	One Test wonders
NSW	3
WA	3
Qld	1
Vic	4
Tas	1
SA	4

Victoria and SA share this honour with 4 one-test wonders – and this is possibly why David Hookes, of SA stock and coach of Victoria after his retirement, was cranky. In the case of SA, this is a third of their players who have made their debut since 1982/83 – indeed, 7 of their 12 Test players did not play more than 4 Tests. Tasmanian players also fair poorly in this regard, with 6 of their 10 players playing no more than 4 Tests – Tasmanian results are severely skewed by Ponting’s 151 and Boon’s 107 Tests.

No matter what state a Test player is from, he has roughly the same chance of playing 15 or more Tests. Thus the data does not support the idea that selectors are more likely to stick with NSW players through a patch of poor form.

	Percentage of state Test players (15+ Tests)
NSW	43%
WA	40%
Qld	56%
Vic	44%
Tas	40%
SA	42%

I would be interested to hear your thoughts regarding this – I know it can stir some passions. But the data would suggest that there is no unfair bias towards NSW.

Further thoughts:

• I have made no attempt to look at players moving state during their careers. Simon Katich, for instance, had a career revival when playing for NSW, even though he was originally picked for Australia when playing for WA. Nathan Hauritz similarly had his fortunes revived when playing for NSW, even though he debuted when playing for Queensland. There are also many examples of this working the other way – Jason Krejza moved to Tasmania, and Adam Gilchrist to WA, both from NSW and then made their debut. Even Don Bradman first played for NSW before an ongoing career with SA.
• You could do the same analysis if you have time and patience on your hands for one-day and Twenty20 cricket.
• It was quite difficult in some cases to track which state a player was playing for when they made their Australian debut, especially if they moved state soon after. I have put the data here (some of the array formulae don't work in Google docs, and I have stripped out the macros, but you can redo them). If I have made a mistake, let me know!